Ukrainian arms exports cover the fields of aviation, shipbuilding, and missile technology. Though the arms industry has been used for revenue generation, little of the income was reinvested in the sector.
Russia was the third-largest buyer of Ukrainian defense-related products from to after China and Pakistan. There are, however, parts and services that Russia currently imports only from Ukraine. Most importantly, the Russian army relies on the Southern Machine Building Plant Association, known as Yuzhmash, in the southeastern Ukrainian city of Dnipropetrovsk, which designs, manufactures, and services rockets and missiles.
At the same time that they rely on exports to Russia, many Ukrainian enterprises that manufacture defense products are also dependent on imported parts and materials—primarily from Russia. This is a long list, not one, two, or three items. Despite these potential losses, Russian officials have been downplaying the impact that severing military and defense relations would have on both the modernization efforts and the current state of the Russian military.
As for other products, Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that Russia will be able to replace defense-related imports from Ukraine within two and a half years. For Ukraine, a permanent loss of military manufacturing ties with Russia would be devastating in the short term.
Ukraine makes few complete weapons systems other than T tanks, some Soviet-era air-defense missiles and space satellites, and Antonov planes.
Kyiv would struggle to find alternative markets for its mainstay production of Russian military hardware components. Such a collapse would likely result in unemployment levels in the defense industry not seen since the breakup of the Soviet Union. The cutoff of defense-industrial ties between Russia and Ukraine is bound to exacerbate the economic crisis already afflicting Ukraine, especially in the east of the country, which is now suffering from a military conflict as well.
Perhaps more worryingly, the crisis will also increase proliferation risks of dual-use, nuclear, and ballistic missile technology and expertise abroad. This is not the first time that proliferation concerns have arisen in Ukraine. After the breakup of the Soviet Union, Ukraine had the largest proliferation potential after Russia in the form of scientists and specialists who found themselves out of work.
In , the United States launched a pioneering series of programs designed to ensure that the scientific and engineering talent of the former Soviet defense-industrial complex did not fall prey to rogue regimes and international proliferators.
Under the auspices of the initiative, U. In , the Russian government felt it no longer needed assistance from the United States , and an abridged successor arrangement was negotiated between the United States and Russia to continue their joint efforts in the area of nonproliferation.
Although the United States has suspended its cooperation with Russia in many areas following the annexation of Crimea by Russia, some cooperation on nonproliferation has continued. That cooperation must be maintained if the international community wants to help Kyiv protect its most sensitive defense-industrial expertise.
The importance of reducing the risk of proliferation should not be underestimated. Chinese and North Korean agents have on several occasions been caught attempting to break into Yuzhmash and acquire long-range ballistic missile technology. In , two North Koreans were arrested for spying after they tried to steal classified missile technology from a Dnipropetrovsk-based designer of satellites and rockets.
There also exists well-documented reporting of uncontrolled flows of small arms and light weapons into Syria through a group of Ukraine-based individuals and logistics companies known as the Odessa Network.
The risks of proliferation have worsened in recent months. The location of major Ukrainian defense industry enterprises in the east of the country, where government control is at its weakest, underscores the severity of the problem. His Servant of the People party went on to win early parliamentary elections in July, giving President Zelensky control of both the executive and the legislature. Read full profile.
National media have adopted a united patriotic agenda following the Russian annexation of Crimea and the armed conflict in the east. Ukraine has banned relays of leading Russian TVs; in turn, areas under Russian or separatist control have seen pro-Kyiv outlets silenced. The authorities also block access to some popular Russian websites and social networks.
TV dominates the media landscape, and major commercial networks are the leading outlets. Many newspapers publish Ukrainian and Russian-language editions.
Some key dates in Ukraine's history:. Russia subsequently seizes Crimean peninsula and launches insurgency to occupy parts of eastern Ukraine. BBC Languages - Ukraine. In recent febrile weeks some pro-Russian campaigners have been calling for Donetsk to follow Crimea and join Russia.
More than 7, Ukrainians, though, have voted in a spoof online referendum for the city of 1 million to become part of another state — the United Kingdom. Economists say that Kiev's move towards the EU will have positive and negative consequences. This will help Ukraine's agricultural sector, they suggest — principally businesses that export milk, cheese and sunflower oil.
The EU says the deal will help trade between Moscow and Kiev. But the news is less good for the east's traditional heavy industries, and a potential disaster for its machine-building and metallurgy businesses. Many of their exports traditionally go to Russia and other post-Soviet countries such as Kazakhstan. Steel-making factories, moreover, are heavily dependent on Russian gas supplies.
The director of Donetsk's steel plant said he worried what would happen if Russia shut its border to Ukrainian goods. Finding an alternative market at a time of continuing economic crisis would be difficult. Since last month pro-Russian protesters have regularly gathered in the city's Lenin Square. Their key demand is federalisation — greater autonomy for the east. Another is that the new government abandons its plan for European integration. And we don't want the EU.
We regard the signing of the association agreement as capitulation," an IT programmer, Roman Protsenko, said. Only friendly relations with "brotherly" Russia could bring prosperity, he argued, saying that Russia, Belarus and Ukraine shared history and orthodox religion. Others said that two decades after Ukraine became independent, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, living standards had scarcely improved, with many surviving on pathetically low wages. It draws weaker states towards it.
A professor of international relations, Igor Todorov, said the anti-EU mood among those struggling to get by was understandable: "The main factor here is emotion. But it's certainly true a part of Ukraine's economy is closely connected with Russia. Moscow, for example, could ban Ukrainian goods, arguing that they don't meet Russian standards, Todorov said.
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